Prediction markets are breaking the news and becoming their own beat
by gnabgib on 4/21/2026, 1:46:14 AM
Comments
by: torcete
I always found interesting that you can bet on Polymarket whether Jesus Christ will come back before 2027 or not. At the moment, you can bet $96.20 to win $100 that he won't.
4/21/2026, 9:40:06 AM
by: throwaway0665
These apps claim to let you turn your knowledge into money. What this means is the insiders get to cash out and the desperate suckers provide the liquidity. I'm amazed they've all gotten away with this for so long.
4/21/2026, 6:15:01 AM
by: arowthway
I don't understand, what's so fundamentally wrong with this form of insider trading? Is the accusation that it makes degenerate gambling unfair? Is it necessary for degenerate gambling to be fair? The gamblers don't seem to care.
4/21/2026, 6:27:39 AM
by: seydor
Just Goodhart's law to massive scale, the most predictable thing ever (there should be a bet for that). Please go back to crypto and destroy this abhorrent 'industry'
4/21/2026, 8:18:57 AM
by: podgorniy
Buying future becomes even easier: just poor money into a bet and eveyone will discuss it as it's real people's expectations....
4/21/2026, 8:18:56 AM
by: shafyy
I recommend watching the latest Last Week Tonight about prediction markets: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4" rel="nofollow">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZN4njIQcSR4</a>
4/21/2026, 8:26:46 AM
by: ares623
I dunno, I feel it's just democratizing insider trading. And as everyone knows, if it has "democratizing" in it, that means it's automatically good.
4/21/2026, 5:42:57 AM
by: sixhobbits
I (my agents) have been playing with the kalshi and poly market APIsv and whatever your opinion on the markets themselves it does feel like there's a bunch of interesting things to do with such a firehose of realtime data.<p>I hope they stay as open and generous as they are now with programmatic access
4/21/2026, 5:59:33 AM
by: Havoc
> it blows my mind that we haven’t seen anyone arrested for insider trading yet,<p>Almost like the offenders get their inside info straight from the chief purveyor of markets up and down chaos
4/21/2026, 7:47:57 AM
by: DonHopkins
I didn't bet on the beat this broke on.<p><a href="https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4?t=1815" rel="nofollow">https://youtu.be/ZN4njIQcSR4?t=1815</a>
4/21/2026, 7:07:35 AM
by: camillomiller
There is a market to bet whether Bryan Johnson will have sex this month or not. I dunno, seems that would be easy to control if you are, I dunno, the living person involved?
4/21/2026, 7:52:16 AM